Cherry picking the positives

Understandably, much of the reaction following games both from media and fans is driven by the final result. After the defeat against Bournemouth which adds to what has been a fairly disappointing start to the season, there has been a lot of negativity surrounding the performance. I do however think that there are some positives to take from the game.

Palace played well up until the 80^th minute against the Cherries

Despite it seeming a very open game, both teams struggled to create good chances until PVA’s error which set Fraser free. Bournemouth started strongly and made some inroads down our left hand side, which lead to the goal – a great finish from Brooks but not a particularly great chance. Palace came back into the game later on in the first half, with Milivojevic in particular playing some great passes through Bournemouth’s midfield to set up attacks. The second half Palace upped the ante and were rewarded with a (slightly offside) goal, again a great finish from a difficult chance.

The game ebbed and flowed from then on, and despite Bournemouth’s formation change to 4-5-1, I felt Palace were the more likely to take the lead. That was until van Aanholt’s mistake, where Wilson really should have scored, which seemed to give the home side a lot of momentum. As you can see from the expected goals chart below – it was incredibly even until that point.

I’m not going to mention the penalty as it was one of those things, but without the two mistakes (PVA and Sakho), I think the game would have petered out to a fair draw.

Improved ball progression

One thing I did notice while watching was how often we got into good positions in or around Bournemouth’s penalty area, but failed to convert those good positions into actual chances. According to understat.com, we completed 11 deep passes in comparison to Bournemouth’s 4 (passes completed within 20 yards of the opponents goal). We also finished with more possession than Bournemouth, and we passed the ball pretty well on the whole, with 84% completion compared to Bournemouth’s 78%. We now have a number of good passers in our team, particularly when Meyer is starting. Even though Luka hasn’t started the season the brightest, he was better yesterday, completing 84% of passes, the majority of which went forward.

538.com have 2 models to measure expected goals – one looks at the quality of shots taken by a team, and the other looks at ‘non-shot’ actions. Their non-shot xg model ‘measures how many goals a team “should” have scored based on non-shooting actions they took around the opposing team’s goal: passes, interceptions, take-ons and tackles’. For the game last night they had Palace’s non-shot xG at 2.0.

So why couldn’t we convert this pressure into more chances?

The are a few factors:

1. The opposition. To give credit to Bournemouth, they defended well and managed to get men back behind the ball when we got into those positions to close down/ block the shot

2. Personnel. As much as he runs his little socks off, Jordan Ayew just isn’t much of a goal threat and does not appear to be a lone striker. In his last 3 starts playing as the only man up front, he has taken just 2 shots – 1 with his shoulder vs Newcastle and 1 wild one from outside the box vs Bournemouth.

With Townsend playing on the right wing, teams know he wants to cross the ball. However with no aerial threat up front, these crosses are usually not dangerous, and unfortunately Andros does not have a great deal more in his locker from that position. A team like Bournemouth with strong centre backs and a big right back also are happy to let him cross it in and trust their defence to win the ball.

3. System. The 4-3-3 we are currently playing with Ayew up front means our best goal threat is stuck out on the left wing, too far away from goal. Many of our fans prefer him on the wing, as maybe because the threat he poses is clearer to the eye – i.e. ball at his feet, terrorising defenders. He certainly dribbles more from this position, but with only Ayew in the box, we miss him too much there. Zaha’s best goalscoring record has come from a central position, and that’s where personally I think he should play.

Season as a whole – attacking woes

Looking more broadly at the season, I am more worried about the attack than our defence. According to Understat.com’s expected goals model, we have created the fourth lowest expected goals in the whole league, with only Brighton, Huddersfield and Newcastle lower. The defence is better – with us conceding the 10^th lowest expected goals (excluding penalties). Losing Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Cabaye has clearly had an effect, but the attack was still functioning better than this last season when Ruben wasn’t playing.

Without Benteke in the side, we are struggling to create good chances. Although the big Belgian is much maligned for his finishing over the last couple of seasons, especially with his feet, he offers the most goal threat of any of our strikers bar Zaha. He takes more shots, and the shots he takes tend to be better chances (higher expected goals). Yes he does miss a lot, but if he keeps getting the chances, he will convert some. Small sample sizes admittedly, but with Benteke in the side this season we create around 1 xG per game, without him this drops to 0.7.

So what is the solution?

Regardless of personnel, I think a return to 4-4-2 will help get the most out of the attackers in this team. Zaha produces much more down the middle and Ayew is struggling on his own. While Benteke is out, I would look to recreate the system at the end of last season, with Townsend and Zaha up front together, with 4 central midfielders across the midfield:

Hennessey

AWB – Tomkins – Sakho – PVA

McArthur – Luka – Kouyate – Meyer

Townsend – Zaha

While Meyer will not drive forward with the ball at his feet as much as Loftus-Cheek did, he is very toidy on the ball and always looks to progress it forward. From what we’ve seen he will link well with Zaha and PVA in terms of short passing. I feel this system also gets the best out of McArthur and frees up Townsend from being stuck on the right wing.

If this system works, then Benteke could find it tough to force his way back in. If not, I would drop Townsend back on to the right wing, and Benteke can replace McArthur.

Plenty to be positive about

Despite our shaky start, we have a strong team. A solid defence, plus ability to pass through teams or go more direct, alongside good attacking threats of Zaha, I am confident will mean we stay up fairly comfortably again. We just need to start creating chances again.

Also, even with our tough run of games coming up, if we only took 2 points from our next 6 games, we’d still be ahead of where we were last season!

Up the Palace!

Thanks for reading.

Follow me on Twitter @AJMH_